Hey, what's going on?

Global warming? global cooling?

Posted by Syeilendra Pramuditya on December 12, 2010

The reduction of Greenhouse gas emission until mid 21st century has been discussed internationally after the publication of IPCC 4th report.

What approach do you think effective for the mitigation of global warming?

Regarding this global warming phenomenon, actually to this day, world scientists, politicians, environmentalists, and so on, still do not agree each other about many aspects of global warming, several key issues still in debate are: Is the global warming really true? Is our planet getting warmer now? Is it true that global warming is unusual phenomenon we have to worry about? Is it true that global warming is solely caused by the over emission of CO2 to the atmosphere? Is it true that global warming is caused by human activities? These issues are very important, because before we think about the mitigation of global warming, actually we all first have to understand and convince that the global warming phenomenon is really true a threat to mankind.

According to Prof. (ret.) Timothy F. Ball from Winnipeg University, in 1970’s the consensus among scientists was that the earth is getting colder, so it was global cooling instead. For example it was an article in LA Times in 1978 entitled “No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere”, and in 1974 in TIME Magazine entitled “Another Ice Age?”. In fact, the earth temperature is always changing over time, in a fluctuative manner, for instance, in 1959, The New York Times published an article entitled “A Warmer Earth Evident at Poles”, but just two years later, the very same newspaper published the opposite article, entitled “Scientists Agree World is Colder”. As Prof. Ball said, “the climate changes all the time, it used to it”. Hence, in my opinion, earth temperature might be goes up now, but it also can be goes down in next decade, so the change of temperature is just natural phenomenon we do not have to worry about.

Probably we all have seen the graph showing CO2 concentration and temperature rise along the time, from this graph it seems that temperature rise is caused by CO2 concentration rise, but according to Prof. Ball, in fact the temperature changes before the CO2, so we can not blame CO2 for the temperature rise. Prof. Ball also explained that by the analysis of the history of ice layers, we now know that as the CO2 concentration goes up, the earth temperature goes down, and this is exactly the opposite of global warming theory today.

Dr. Patrick Moore, founding member of Greenpeace, reveals that it was a petition signed by about 19,000 scientists and professors who do not agree with the idea that mankind are causing the climate change. Even one of the IPCC reviewers, a climate expert Prof. Tad Murty from Carleton University, opposed the idea of global warming, he said that it is not a global warming, it is nothing more just the El Nino phenomenon.

Probably we all also have seen the very symbol of global warming, the famous “Hockey Stick” graph (also known as the MBH98 reconstruction) published by Prof. M.E. Mann from Pennsylvania State University, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, in one of the early IPCC report. This graph shows average earth temperature profile for 1000 years, which depicts a relatively constant temperature for 900 years, and a sudden temperature rise of the past century. But in 2003, a Canadian analyst, Stephen MacIntyre, and Prof. Ross Kitrick from Guelph University, decided to reconstruct the graph from the original data, and they found a serious computer programming error in the Hockey Stick graph, their result shows that in around 15th century there was a temperature rise just as high as today, so it is might be true that temperature is increasing today, by it is just a natural fluctuating pattern of climate.

Even the founder of The Weather Channel, John Coleman, said that he wants to sue the top global warming activist today, and also former vice president of the U.S, Al Gore, for public fraud, Coleman claims that he has 30,000 scientists to support this legal action.

Hence, with all these facts, personally I am not convinced yet about this global warming, but in other case, if it is true that the global warming is a real man-made potential catastrophe, I have some opinions about how to mitigate it. The first thing to consider is of course to stop using any energy sources that emit a large amount of CO2. Some promising options for near future are the energy from nuclear fission, geothermal, and maybe fuel cell as well. Whereas for a quite distant future, I believe that nuclear fusion, with its virtually limitless fuel from the ocean, and also hazard-free characteristic, will become the most important energy source for mankind.

Some related reading materials:

2 Responses to “Global warming? global cooling?”

  1. Christine said

    I’m not sure if you are deliberately trying to distort the facts or if you are genuinely misinformed – there is no doubt at all that global warming is a reality these days (even Lord Monckton, the loudest of the skeptics, is on record saying that it’s happening. You might want to check out “Deniers who Changed Their Minds – http://climatecrocks.com/2010/12/07/deniers-who-changed-their-minds/).

    The reason? NASA data shows last month was the hottest November on record, and likely (because it’s not over yet) 2010 is the hottest year on record, at the end of the hottest decade on record, both in North America and globally. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

    As well, Environment Canada data demonstrates this past spring in Canada was 4 degrees warmer than average: http://ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=4CC724DA-1#a1

    So, while it’s good to be skeptical, make sure you examine all of the facts, my friend. Have you read the 1000 page IPCC report? I haven’t either, but it is based on the best of the peer reviewed records out there by nearly 1000 scientists around the world. Whereas Tim Ball, ex-professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg, hasn’t published any scientific paper in decades (I believe his total peer-reviewed papers to date is about 3 in his total career).

    If you truly are a scientist with a skeptical mind about this issue, you might want to check out skepticalscience.com, or climatesight.org where the science is approached with an open mind, not one closed by too close an association with the fossil fuel industry (such as Tim Ball et al).

    Syeilendra said..
    Hello Christine,

    I have not read the 1000 page IPCC report
    Thanks for the links, I will read and learn them later, and I might change my mind

  2. well, actually … i pretty much convince that climate change is not caused by fossil fuel at all … it’s rather to natural anomalie instead of human activity results

    Syeilendra said..
    And how do you convinced about that?

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